Where the Energy Transition is Succeeding - Episode 89

While we talk a lot about the energy "transition", some countries have already fully pivoted to renewable power. In this episode, Paul takes a look at how these countries were able to successfully make the change, while outlining a few common lessons that the rest of the world can learn as we try to catch up.

For further research:

"California achieves 100 days of 100% electricity demand met by renewables" - Electrek

"Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023" - World Economic Forum

"Renewable energy statistics 2024" - IRENA

Follow Paul on LinkedIn.

Transcript

This is Eight Minutes – a podcast helping you understand the energy and climate challenge in just a few minutes – I’m your host, Paul Schuster.

Believe it or not, there are actually 13 countries that get over 90% of their electricity, today, from renewable power. And, at least according to the World Economic Forum, 107 out of the world’s 120 countries are showing meaningful progress toward transitioning to a cleaner energy system.

There are a lot of great success stories out there on the energy transition. Today, I’ll highlight some of the areas where the shift toward renewable energy is going well – and see whether we can learn something from these early pioneers.

Eight Minutes – it’s how long it takes the sun’s rays to hit earth – or seven minutes longer than it takes to devour a box of girl scout cookies … Let’s get it on!

On July 28th, California met an impressive milestone – it marked the 100th day of the state having supplied 100% of its electricity demand with renewable power.

As impressive as that is, though – I kinda have this image in my head of Iceland scoffing and saying to themselves “100 days – we’ve been running on renewable power for more than a decade … hold my beer.”

Yes – Iceland is a model for what the clean energy future could look like. Not only does the country supply nearly 100% of their electricity demand with renewable power, but nearly every single home and building on the island is heated geothermally. In fact, 85% of the country’s TOTAL energy needs, which includes industry and transport and shipping – a full 85% of all energy comes from renewable resources.

Now – Iceland has some advantages the rest of the world would love to have. For one thing, the country sits on an active tectonic plate that, which not only creates over 200 volcanoes in the country, but gives Iceland a remarkable resource to draw upon for heat and electricity. And the nation’s access to hydro resources basically rounds out the equation. And both hydro and geothermal have the added benefit of delivering steady, baseload generation – and avoiding some of the intermittency concerns of wind or solar power.

But a country doesn’t have to have Iceland’s built in benefits to succeed. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA, Other countries, such as Ethiopia, Paraguay, Albania, NEPAL … these are all supplying essentially all of their electricity needs with renewable power, these days. Costa Rica has been on 100% renewable power since 2014. Norway, since 2010.

In fact, and I’ve talked about this on my show before, Norway also boasts one of the world’s highest adoption rates for electric vehicles. About 80% of all new vehicles sold in the country are electric. A big reason why? The electricity being supplied is not only green – but cheap too. Gas powered cars just don’t make a lot of sense.

There are some common themes with the countries that have successfully navigated this shift to renewable power. For one thing, the importance of hydropower is prevalent for each country, providing that needed foundation from which solar or wind or OFFSHORE wind can help to fill in the gaps. 

Not all countries have such rich hydro resources, though, which is why it’s taking a bit longer in the rest of the world.

But, nearly everywhere, signs of the transition are occurring. The World Economic Forum, in partnership with Accenture, releases an annual report on how the globe is doing in transitioning. 

In the latest report, the WEF had positive news that 107 of 120 countries have shown meaningful progress over the past decade. 

That’s not to say that any of these countries are on track … or that any will hit the commitments that they’ve made in the Paris Agreement. But the report DOES show progress – it just needs to be amplified and accelerated.

The countries that seem to be doing the best in the energy transition seem to be northern European. Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Switzerland. Lots of similar geological considerations as Norway and these countries are taking advantage of that.

France actually comes in fifth on the heels of real progress around energy efficiency efforts in the country.

And for those wondering, the US clocked in at 19th on the list while China slips in at 17th.

And THAT’s the main challenge. Because as wonderful as it is to see whole countries shift to 100% renewable energy, these smaller countries have only a minimal impact on global emissions. In fact the top 10 countries in WEF’s report only represent about 1% of the world’s emissions. 

If we look at JUST China and the US, together – those two countries account for about 45% of the world’s carbon.

And while both countries have taken big steps, recently, toward reducing their emissions – there ARE lessons that may be learned from countries that have already made this transition.

For instance, the importance of baseload power. Whether it’s hydropower or geothermal, countries that have prioritized baseload renewable power are seeing success.

But that power doesn’t NEED to be hydro or geo, either. California, Scotland, England – these countries have shown that they can operate over long periods of time based on a combination of stitching together solar, wind and battery technologies. Scotland, Denmark and the Netherlands have proven the effectiveness of using offshore wind to provide baseloaded energy.

The second lesson learned is how integrated the entire transition is. As mentioned before, Norway’s EV shift is happening on the back of cheap renewable power. Data in Tanzania, Bangladesh and Cost Rica have all shown that electricity prices FALL in 100% renewable energy scenarios – which means it’s an easier economic case to be made for EVs or heat pumps or industry electrification.

And, lastly, is the need for supporting policy. The US made big strides in this direction with the passage of the infrastructure bill and the IRA – but still has a ways to go. To bring up the WEF report one last time, they cited the lack of policy reform for transmission and interconnection as hampering the ability for new renewable generation to come online … something I think I may have talked about last week!

The world is slowly pivoting toward a renewable energy future. What I think is amazing is that some countries are already there. They’ve made the shift and are now reaping the environmental and economic benefits that come with that. And, what’s more – the countries that are succeeding are NOT ONLY big western behemoths. It includes countries like Ethiopia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Costa Rica.

If THEY can do it … what’s our excuse?

I’m Paul Schuster – and this has been your eight minutes.